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            Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2026
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            Abstract All species must partition resources among the processes that underly growth, survival, and reproduction. The resulting demographic trade‐offs constrain the range of viable life‐history strategies and are hypothesized to promote local coexistence. Tropical forests pose ideal systems to study demographic trade‐offs as they have a high diversity of coexisting tree species whose life‐history strategies tend to align along two orthogonal axes of variation: a growth–survival trade‐off that separates species with fast growth from species with high survival and a stature–recruitment trade‐off that separates species that achieve large stature from species with high recruitment. As these trade‐offs have typically been explored for trees ≥1 cm dbh, it is unclear how species' growth and survival during earliest seedling stages are related to the trade‐offs for trees ≥1 cm dbh. Here, we used principal components and correlation analyses to (1) determine the main demographic trade‐offs among seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and growth and survival rates from the seedling to overstory size classes of 1188 tree species from large‐scale forest dynamics plots in Panama, Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Taiwan, and Malaysia and (2) quantify the predictive power of maximum dbh, wood density, seed mass, and specific leaf area for species' position along these demographic trade‐off gradients. In four out of five forests, the growth–survival trade‐off was the most important demographic trade‐off and encompassed growth and survival of both seedlings and trees ≥1 cm dbh. The second most important trade‐off separated species with relatively fast growth and high survival at the seedling stage from species with relatively fast growth and high survival ≥1 cm dbh. The relationship between seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and these two trade‐off aces differed between sites. All four traits were significant predictors for species' position along the two trade‐off gradients, albeit with varying importance. We concluded that, after accounting for the species' position along the growth–survival trade‐off, tree species tend to trade off growth and survival at the seedling with later life stages. This ontogenetic trade‐off offers a mechanistic explanation for the stature–recruitment trade‐off that constitutes an additional ontogenetic dimension of life‐history variation in species‐rich ecosystems.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2026
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            Tropical forests are well known for their high woody plant diversity. Processes occurring at early life stages are thought to play a critical role in maintaining this high diversity and shaping the composition of tropical tree communities. To evaluate hypothesized mechanisms promoting tropical tree species coexistence and influencing composition, we initiated a census of woody seedlings and small saplings in the permanent 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP) on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Situated in old-growth, lowland tropical moist forest, the BCI FDP was originally established in 1980 to monitor trees and shrubs ≥1 cm diameter at 1.3 m above ground (dbh) at ca. 5-yr intervals. However, critical data on the dynamics occurring at earlier life stages were initially lacking. Therefore, in 2001 we established a 1-m2 seedling plot in the center of every 5 x 5 m section of the BCI FDP. All freestanding woody individuals ≥20 cm tall and <1 cm dbh (hereafter referred to as seedlings) were tagged, mapped, measured, and identified to species in 19,313 1-m2 seedling plots. Because seedling dynamics are rapid, we censused these seedling plots every 1–2 years. Here we present data from the 14 censuses of these seedling plots conducted between the initial census in 2001 to the most recent census, in 2018. This data set includes nearly 1M observations of ~185,000 individuals of >400 tree, shrub, and liana species. These data will permit spatially-explicit analyses of seedling distributions, recruitment, growth, and survival for hundreds of woody plant species. In addition, the data presented here can be linked to openly-available, long-term data on the dynamics of trees and shrubs ≥1cm dbh in the BCI FDP, as well as existing data sets from the site on climate, canopy structure, phylogenetic relatedness, functional traits, soil nutrients, and topography.more » « less
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            Abstract Tropical forests are well known for their high woody plant diversity. Processes occurring at early life stages are thought to play a critical role in maintaining this high diversity and shaping the composition of tropical tree communities. To evaluate hypothesized mechanisms promoting tropical tree species coexistence and influencing composition, we initiated a census of woody seedlings and small saplings in the permanent 50 ha Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP) on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Situated in old‐growth, lowland tropical moist forest, the BCI FDP was originally established in 1980 to monitor trees and shrubs ≥1 cm diameter at 1.3 m above ground (dbh) at ca. 5‐year intervals. However, critical data on the dynamics occurring at earlier life stages were initially lacking. Therefore, in 2001 we established a 1‐m2seedling plot in the center of every 5 × 5 m section of the BCI FDP. All freestanding woody individuals ≥20 cm tall and <1 cm dbh (hereafter referred to as seedlings) were tagged, mapped, measured, and identified to species in 19,313 1‐m2seedling plots. Because seedling dynamics are rapid, we censused these seedling plots every 1–2 years. Here, we present data from the 14 censuses of these seedling plots conducted between the initial census in 2001 to the most recent census, in 2018. This data set includes nearly 1 M observations of ~185,000 individuals of >400 tree, shrub, and liana species. These data will permit spatially‐explicit analyses of seedling distributions, recruitment, growth, and survival for hundreds of woody plant species. In addition, the data presented here can be linked to openly‐available, long‐term data on the dynamics of trees and shrubs ≥1 cm dbh in the BCI FDP, as well as existing data sets from the site on climate, canopy structure, phylogenetic relatedness, functional traits, soil nutrients, and topography. This data set can be freely used for non‐commercial purposes; we request that users of these data cite this data paper in all publications resulting from the use of this data set.more » « less
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            The future trajectory of global forests is closely intertwined with tree demography, and a major fundamental goal in ecology is to understand the key mechanisms governing spatio‐temporal patterns in tree population dynamics. While previous research has made substantial progress in identifying the mechanisms individually, their relative importance among forests remains unclear mainly due to practical limitations. One approach to overcome these limitations is to group mechanisms according to their shared effects on the variability of tree vital rates and quantify patterns therein. We developed a conceptual and statistical framework (variance partitioning of Bayesian multilevel models) that attributes the variability in tree growth, mortality, and recruitment to variation in species, space, and time, and their interactions – categories we refer to asorganising principles(OPs). We applied the framework to data from 21 forest plots covering more than 2.9 million trees of approximately 6500 species. We found that differences among species, thespeciesOP, proved a major source of variability in tree vital rates, explaining 28–33% of demographic variance alone, and 14–17% in interaction withspace, totalling 40–43%. Our results support the hypothesis that the range of vital rates is similar across global forests. However, the average variability among species declined with species richness, indicating that diverse forests featured smaller interspecific differences in vital rates. Moreover, decomposing the variance in vital rates into the proposed OPs showed the importance of unexplained variability, which includes individual variation, in tree demography. A focus on how demographic variance is organized in forests can facilitate the construction of more targeted models with clearer expectations of which covariates might drive a vital rate. This study therefore highlights the most promising avenues for future research, both in terms of understanding the relative contributions of groups of mechanisms to forest demography and diversity, and for improving projections of forest ecosystems.more » « less
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            Abstract One mechanism proposed to explain high species diversity in tropical systems is strong negative conspecific density dependence (CDD), which reduces recruitment of juveniles in proximity to conspecific adult plants. Although evidence shows that plant-specific soil pathogens can drive negative CDD, trees also form key mutualisms with mycorrhizal fungi, which may counteract these effects. Across 43 large-scale forest plots worldwide, we tested whether ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibit weaker negative CDD than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. We further tested for conmycorrhizal density dependence (CMDD) to test for benefit from shared mutualists. We found that the strength of CDD varies systematically with mycorrhizal type, with ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibiting higher sapling densities with increasing adult densities than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. Moreover, we found evidence of positive CMDD for tree species of both mycorrhizal types. Collectively, these findings indicate that mycorrhizal interactions likely play a foundational role in global forest diversity patterns and structure.more » « less
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            Abstract Environmental gradients act as potent filters on species distributions driving compositional shifts across communities. Compositional shifts may reflect differences in physiological tolerances to a limiting resource that result in broad distributions for tolerant species and restricted distributions for intolerant species (i.e. a nested pattern). Alternatively, trade‐offs in resource use or conflicting species' responses to multiple resources can result in complete turnover of species along gradients.We combined trait (leaf area, leaf mass per area, wood density and maximum height) and distribution data for 550 tree species to examine taxonomic and functional composition at 72 sites across strong gradients of soil phosphorus (P) and rainfall in central Panama.We determined whether functional and taxonomic composition was nested or turned over completely and whether community mean traits and species composition were more strongly driven by P or moisture.Turnover characterized the functional composition of tree communities. Leaf traits responded to both gradients, with species having larger and thinner leaves in drier and more fertile sites than in wetter and less fertile sites. These leaf trait–moisture relationships contradict predictions based on drought responses and suggest a greater role for differences in light availability than in moisture. Shifts in wood density and maximum height were weaker than for leaf traits with taller species dominating wet sites and low wood density species dominating P‐rich sites.Turnover characterized the taxonomic composition of tree communities. Geographic distances explained a larger fraction of variation for taxonomic composition than for functional composition, and community mean traits were more strongly driven by P than moisture.Synthesis. Our results offer weak support for the tolerance hypothesis for tree communities in central Panama. Instead, we observe functional and taxonomic turnover reflecting trade‐offs and conflicting species' responses to multiple abiotic factors including moisture, soil phosphorus and potentially other correlated variables (e.g. light).more » « less
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            Abstract Organisms of all species must balance their allocation to growth, survival and recruitment. Among tree species, evolution has resulted in different life‐history strategies for partitioning resources to these key demographic processes. Life‐history strategies in tropical forests have often been shown to align along a trade‐off between fast growth and high survival, that is, the well‐known fast–slow continuum. In addition, an orthogonal trade‐off has been proposed between tall stature—resulting from fast growth and high survival—and recruitment success, that is, a stature−recruitment trade‐off. However, it is not clear whether these two independent dimensions of life‐history variation structure tropical forests worldwide.We used data from 13 large‐scale and long‐term tropical forest monitoring plots in three continents to explore the principal trade‐offs in annual growth, survival and recruitment as well as tree stature. These forests included relatively undisturbed forests as well as typhoon‐disturbed forests. Life‐history variation in 12 forests was structured by two orthogonal trade‐offs, the growth−survival trade‐off and the stature−recruitment trade‐off. Pairwise Procrustes analysis revealed a high similarity of demographic relationships among forests. The small deviations were related to differences between African and Asian plots.Synthesis. The fast–slow continuum and tree stature are two independent dimensions structuring many, but not all tropical tree communities. Our discovery of the consistency of demographic trade‐offs and life‐history strategies across different forest types from three continents substantially improves our ability to predict tropical forest dynamics worldwide.more » « less
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